Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 120,998
2 South Dakota 111,591
3 Iowa 88,767
4 Wisconsin 88,661
5 Nebraska 85,663
6 Utah 84,823
7 Rhode Island 83,020
8 Tennessee 82,946
9 Idaho 78,424
10 Kansas 77,355
11 Wyoming 76,254
12 Montana 76,116
13 Illinois 75,589
14 Indiana 75,454
15 Arkansas 73,705
16 Minnesota 73,261
17 Alabama 72,773
18 Oklahoma 72,537
19 Nevada 72,409
20 Mississippi 71,587
21 Arizona 70,804
22 Missouri 67,467
23 New Mexico 67,348
24 Louisiana 66,948
25 Alaska 63,210
26 Florida 60,812
27 Texas 60,535
28 Kentucky 59,984
29 Georgia 59,605
30 Ohio 59,093
31 South Carolina 58,941
32 Delaware 58,120
33 Colorado 57,770
34 California 57,589
35 New Jersey 53,397
36 Massachusetts 53,379
37 Michigan 52,762
38 Connecticut 51,514
39 North Carolina 51,021
40 Pennsylvania 49,735
41 New York 49,535
42 West Virginia 46,996
43 Maryland 45,301
44 District of Columbia 40,748
45 Virginia 40,342
46 Puerto Rico 34,287
47 Washington 32,496
48 New Hampshire 31,802
49 Oregon 26,625
50 Maine 17,481
51 Hawaii 15,032
52 Vermont 11,660

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Rhode Island 1,851
2 Kansas 1,394
3 Connecticut 1,020
4 Arizona 956
5 California 913
6 Tennessee 837
7 Arkansas 834
8 Louisiana 825
9 Alabama 760
10 Mississippi 746
11 Massachusetts 734
12 Utah 734
13 Texas 733
14 Idaho 721
15 Georgia 699
16 Kentucky 684
17 Oklahoma 664
18 West Virginia 653
19 Nebraska 604
20 New York 604
21 New Hampshire 596
22 Pennsylvania 583
23 Nevada 582
24 Ohio 576
25 North Carolina 561
26 Indiana 553
27 Wyoming 537
28 Missouri 536
29 Florida 529
30 Delaware 526
31 New Mexico 516
32 Iowa 503
33 South Dakota 501
34 Montana 490
35 Illinois 478
36 South Carolina 472
37 Wisconsin 437
38 Virginia 420
39 New Jersey 417
40 Maine 401
41 Michigan 379
42 Colorado 371
43 Maryland 354
44 North Dakota 321
45 Alaska 316
46 Washington 280
47 Puerto Rico 277
48 District of Columbia 262
49 Minnesota 239
50 Oregon 202
51 Vermont 131
52 Hawaii 51

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,133
2 New York 1,923
3 Massachusetts 1,790
4 North Dakota 1,691
5 Rhode Island 1,677
6 Connecticut 1,672
7 South Dakota 1,654
8 Louisiana 1,602
9 Mississippi 1,595
10 Illinois 1,405
11 Michigan 1,302
12 Pennsylvania 1,227
13 Indiana 1,212
14 Iowa 1,211
15 Arkansas 1,205
16 Arizona 1,198
17 New Mexico 1,162
18 District of Columbia 1,105
19 South Carolina 1,019
20 Florida 1,003
21 Nevada 1,000
22 Georgia 989
23 Tennessee 988
24 Alabama 973
25 Maryland 967
26 Texas 959
27 Missouri 952
28 Delaware 945
29 Minnesota 943
30 Kansas 940
31 Wisconsin 892
32 Montana 888
33 Nebraska 847
34 Colorado 837
35 Idaho 788
36 Ohio 757
37 West Virginia 735
38 Wyoming 699
39 Kentucky 658
40 North Carolina 646
41 California 642
42 Oklahoma 619
43 Virginia 583
44 New Hampshire 544
45 Puerto Rico 464
46 Washington 457
47 Utah 392
48 Oregon 350
49 Alaska 266
50 Maine 248
51 Vermont 214
52 Hawaii 199

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Kansas 26
2 Rhode Island 22
3 Wyoming 18
4 Arkansas 17
5 Pennsylvania 17
6 Connecticut 16
7 Indiana 15
8 Mississippi 15
9 New Mexico 14
10 Tennessee 14
11 Arizona 13
12 Illinois 12
13 Nevada 12
14 New Jersey 12
15 Louisiana 11
16 Massachusetts 11
17 West Virginia 11
18 Michigan 10
19 Missouri 10
20 California 9
21 Colorado 9
22 Idaho 9
23 Nebraska 9
24 Ohio 9
25 Delaware 8
26 Iowa 8
27 Montana 8
28 New Hampshire 8
29 Texas 8
30 Washington 8
31 Wisconsin 8
32 Kentucky 7
33 Maryland 7
34 New York 7
35 Minnesota 6
36 North Dakota 6
37 Oklahoma 6
38 South Carolina 6
39 South Dakota 6
40 Alabama 5
41 District of Columbia 5
42 Florida 5
43 North Carolina 5
44 Virginia 5
45 Georgia 4
46 Puerto Rico 4
47 Utah 4
48 Oregon 3
49 Vermont 3
50 Maine 2
51 Alaska 1
52 Hawaii 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Crowley Colorado 270,582 1 99
Norton Kansas 219,922 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 215,756 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 214,189 4 99
Bon Homme South Dakota 214,027 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 97,450 333 89
Richland South Carolina 62,656 1596 49
York South Carolina 53,168 2075 33
Orange California 51,954 2125 32
Pierce Washington 30,240 2832 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Gove Kansas 7,587 1 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,452 2 99
Dickey North Dakota 6,568 3 99
Gregory South Dakota 6,213 4 99
Foster North Dakota 5,919 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 813 1812 42
Richland South Carolina 803 1828 41
York South Carolina 634 2127 32
Orange California 590 2203 29
Pierce Washington 382 2573 18

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons